Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Bubble, Bubble, Buffett Says No Bubble

I have been asked it frequently in the last few months. What with the still tight housing inventory and the prices continuing to climb. Are we in a bubble?

Warren Buffett says no. He's a pretty smart dude. "I don't see a nationwide bubble in real estate right now at all", were his comments at the annual shareholders meeting of Berkshire Hathaway this past Saturday.

Well, let's see now. Are prices where they were when we collapsed 10 years ago? No. Are loans being given as freely as they were 10 years ago? No. Was it cheaper to buy a home 4 years ago than now? Yes. Oh well, you missed that cheapo boat but rates are still low.

Personal opinion/story here. Sold our family house in 2006 for 670. Bought a gorgeous townhouse for just me same year for 610. That house would be worth about 550 now, and the townhouse about 500.

So, if we have any reduction of pricing that's going to happen...it won't be catastrophic like almost 10 years ago. Sure, we may, and we already have a bit out here a couple years ago after the 10-15% increase in values in 2011-2012, see a stall. We may also see a lapse of 5%....IMHO. Will we see a 35-50 loss in values in the immediate future? Nope, don't think so. That was a serious CRASH, and a little up/down is a healthier market. Slow appreciation is best, we all know that. But, another severe crash/bubble coming? Not in my opinion.

What's yours?

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